英国央行货币政策委员会投票决定将基准利率维持在0.5%不变,这是该行连续第25个月维持利率在历史低位,该委员会同时决定维持定量宽松计划下2000亿英镑的国债购买规模不变。受经济疲软和通胀风险加剧双重威胁的英国未来货币政策将如何,超宽松的货币政策还能撑多久?
IanM cCafferty,CBI chief econom ic advi-ser said,“T
heshort-term datacontinuetocloudthe issue,but there are grow ingrisks
ofinflationbecom ingm oreingrainedas firm s at-tem ptto bolstertheirprofitm
arginsandem ployees seekhigher w age rises inthe face of sharplyincreasedcosts
of energyandcom m odi-ties.”
英国工业联合会(C B
I)首席经济学家IanM cC
afferty表示,“短期数据依然为利率决策蒙上阴影,但面临不断上涨的大宗商品成本,企业努力扩大利润,员工也试图争取工资上涨,通货膨胀的风险还在继续增长。”(英国BBC新闻网站)
T hem ost likelyscenariois that therew
illbenorateriseuntil M ayat theearliest,thefirst m eetingat w hichtheM PC w ill
havehadthebenefit of seeingG D P figures for thefirstquarterof theyear. A ssum
ing they do notsh ow that the U K has slipped furtherbackw ards,the date
shouldgive reassurance tothosew ithhaw kishinstincts ontheM PC thata rate rise w
on’t strangle the
recovery.
最有可能出现的情况就是英国央行最早于5月加息,因为到时英国央行货币政策委员会将获知今年第一季度G D
P数字,如果数字显示英国经济没有继续后退,该委员会强烈反对加息的委员的态度将有所缓和。(英国《独立报》)
T heO fficeforN ational StatisticssaidFridaythat output
prices,those chargedat thefactorygate,rose 5.3% from a year earlier. Itw
asthehighest ratesinceO ctober2008andaboveJanuary’s 5.0% inflationrate. H
igheroutput prices from producers w ill put pressureonretailers toincrease their
ow nprices,poss-iblyfuelingfurther rises intheconsum
er-priceindexandspurringtheBO E totightenm
onet-arypolicy.
英国国家统计办公室上周五表示,企业出厂价格2月较上一年增长了5.3%,这是自2008年10月以来的最快增幅,高于1月的5.0%。出厂价格的上涨增加了零售商的涨价压力,有可能进一步引发消费者价格指数的上涨,使英国央行收紧货币政策。(《华尔街日报》)
Further clues ontheinterest-rateoutlookw ill com e next
T uesdayw ithpublicationof of-ficial U K consum erpricesdataforFebruary.Figures
last m onthshow edannual U K C PI in-flationrosefrom 3.7% inD ecem ber to4%
inJanuary - tw icethe2% target set fortheBankof Englandbythe
Treasury.
将于本周二公布的消费者价格指数将提供判断利率前景的更多线索。此前数字显示英国去年12月和今年1月的消费者价格指数分别达到3.7%和4%,远远超过央行预定的2%的目标。(英国《独立报》)
T he B ritish C ham bers ofC om m erce(BC C )w elcom
edthecentral bank’s decisiontoleave rates onholdbut saidthat
ongoingspeculationover interest rates couldharm business.“WhiletheM PC cannot
forecast itsfutureactions,the w ayit currentlycom m unicates
cancreateuncertainty. T heM PC m ust address thisinorder to give businesses andm
arket analystsagreater degreeof predictability.”saidD avidK ern,chief econom ist
at the BCC .
英国商会对央行决定表示欢迎,但同时也表示对于市场对于未来利率变化的猜想有可能对工商业不利。B C
C首席经济学家D avid K ern表示,“尽管央行货币政策委员会目前无法预测未来的决策,但与市场的交流方式将产生巨大的不确定性,MP
C应该给市场一定程度的可预测性。”(英国BBC新闻网站)